Quick question

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old pauline
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Quick question

Post by old pauline » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:43 pm

Well two in fact.

1, So we are currently doing exactly the same as last season. Off-loading one or two players with the aim of getting safe with youngsters and maybe one or two additions. Only difference being that this year we have MW to steer us to safety while last season it was JE.

Question 1 : Is this a wise strategy and are we going to survive ?
Question 2 : Is this the only way forward given the financial shit we are in ?

If anyone can answer the above questions it will save me much time when I could be doing better things. Cheers.
Come on you Sooopa ........

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Montag
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Re: Quick question

Post by Montag » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:09 pm

The same thing has crossed my mind. If we go nowhere this season which seems probable then the likelihood is that we'll lose our better young players at the end of the season. Then we have to find replacements - if we can. Seems like we're treading water until we sink unless the scouting team can keep turning up the odd gem.
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Re: Quick question

Post by Giorgio » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:41 pm

...or may be they manage to review the FFP rules...??
As reported in the tweet by McIntyre....more clubs look likely to get into trouble soon.....so that FFP is basically upsetting the division

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Re: Quick question

Post by jimjams » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:20 am

It's three questions, really isn't it?

Are we going to survive? Yes. On current trajectory of the bottom three, 41,42 points would be enough. Realistically it might be 46, or so, but we should be able to get that.

Is this the only way forward? No. It seems everyone we want is too expensive, and Wells was taken off us, but we could clearly keep the others on our books. Club seems to have decided that, since we are out of the cups and aren't going up or down, we might as well save some money.

Is this wise? There's the rub. Eight or 10 points should easily see us safe, and since we are almost certain to get that anyway, it makes logical sense to trim the wage bill. But 10 points from 17 games is a dismal thing to sit through. Steve Mc was still manager at this time last year, and was in a not-too-different situation, but the post-Christmas death spiral we went into was quite depressing for fans, must have sapped team morale, and cost McC laren his job. I think that's really the risk, although I do think the team is still quite strong. We just have less in reserve.

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UxbridgeR
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Re: Quick question

Post by UxbridgeR » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:39 am

old pauline wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:43 pm
Well two in fact.

1, So we are currently doing exactly the same as last season. Off-loading one or two players with the aim of getting safe with youngsters and maybe one or two additions. Only difference being that this year we have MW to steer us to safety while last season it was JE.

Question 1 : Is this a wise strategy and are we going to survive ?
Question 2 : Is this the only way forward given the financial shit we are in ?

If anyone can answer the above questions it will save me much time when I could be doing better things. Cheers.
It would take a pretty catastrophic run of form to drop us into a relegation battle, and that's pretty unlikely, so I think we'll survive.

We're not really in "financial shit" in my view. It's more that we've been there and the owners don't want to go back. We're trying to live within our means and stay within the FFP rules, while developing our own young players and trying to buy very cheaply when we do so at all. The other hope seems to be that while we effectively tread water, those teams who have gambled on breaking the rules and been unsuccessful will be damaged by the ensuing points deductions or fines, leaving us in a stronger position in this league.

Is it wise ? Well that's debatable of course. Some see it as a lack of ambition, and will drift away if the best we can hope for is staying up and avoiding a relegation battle every year. I think the sales of Eze and / or BOS will be key. We need to make sure we get good money for them, and then reinvest some of that in the squad, and by some, I mean rather more than £150k a season. If we can spend that money wisely and strengthen the team overall, then the model will be working.

Unfortunately the permanent signings we've made this season don't inspire a huge amount of confidence that we will. Kane, Pugh, Wallace and Cameron have been unimpressive overall, while the jury's out on Kelly and Masterson, though both are young and look very promising. We've been over-reliant on loans this season - five is just too many, particularly when three were strikers from PL clubs and we don't have a single one that we own playing any kind of part. We should have bought a young striker in the summer and allowed them to learn from the loan players this year, while getting game time from the bench. We'll have to do it at that end of this season anyway, unless we want to be in exactly the same position next year.
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old pauline
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Re: Quick question

Post by old pauline » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:10 am

I agree 100% about the strikers. We just don't seem to identify hit men and to develop them into 1st team strikers. We seem to have identified good young midfielders and one or two full backs but we don't seem to get any goalscorers coming through. I'm hoping Charlie Kendall continues to progress but in recent years our U23 number 9's all seem to have been duds. I wonder if Sir Les lends a hand to the coaching and development. None of the lads that I have seen coming through seem to have his aggression to win the ball.
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Re: Quick question

Post by kernowhoop » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:35 am

Much sense has been expressed in the responses to Old Pauline's question. Hard to disagree with it.
But, there is a big risk lurking in what is left of the season. It is easy to do the arithmetic and point out how close we are to a safe points total. Trouble is, when there is no longer anything to play for (too far off play-offs and out of the cups) it can become acceptable to lose. If that happens, then the players acquire what John Eustace apparently called a 'losing mentality', commitment on the pitch diminishes, fans become fed up and most importantly the teams fighting to stay up begin to narrow the gap. Suddenly, we find ourselves in a relegation struggle.
I suggest that it is easier for a manager to get the best out of a team that has play-off aspirations than it is to manage one that wishes only to be 'safe'.
Does anyone else have that concern?
It's simple. Score more goals than they do.

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Re: Quick question

Post by UxbridgeR » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:11 pm

kernowhoop wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:35 am
Much sense has been expressed in the responses to Old Pauline's question. Hard to disagree with it.
But, there is a big risk lurking in what is left of the season. It is easy to do the arithmetic and point out how close we are to a safe points total. Trouble is, when there is no longer anything to play for (too far off play-offs and out of the cups) it can become acceptable to lose. If that happens, then the players acquire what John Eustace apparently called a 'losing mentality', commitment on the pitch diminishes, fans become fed up and most importantly the teams fighting to stay up begin to narrow the gap. Suddenly, we find ourselves in a relegation struggle.
I suggest that it is easier for a manager to get the best out of a team that has play-off aspirations than it is to manage one that wishes only to be 'safe'.
Does anyone else have that concern?
Anything's possible, but I wouldn't call it a big risk. I'm sure Warburton won't consider we're safe until we hit at least 50 points or so, so there's no reason to be complacent just yet. There are also a few players out of contract in the summer, who might need to step up their performance levels if they want to be here next season, or at least impress some other club sufficiently to want to sign them.
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Re: Quick question

Post by Stans left foot » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:30 pm

well, I was putting another spin on it. Just how sustainable is FFP?

we're stuck, as are several other Championship clubs, in a false scenario where rich, very rich, ( in our case Very, very, very rich ) wealthy owners are hamstrung to abide by FFP.

this leaves them and their clubs in a trapped position. They can't spend and effectively "go for it" without sanction. I know of now other business ( in the free world ) where such a constraint of trade is allowed by law. So, just how do the EFL get away with it.

On which point it would be nice to see with full clarity where every last penny of our £50 odd million fine is being spent. Don't even get me started on that XXXX at the PFA.....

so, for me the bigger question is just how long with multi millionaires hold back from challenging what is quickly becoming a farcical FFP situation. ?
"Fing Poo Wah" ( your comments are as much interest to me as a dogs fart ).

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dm
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Re: Quick question

Post by dm » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:14 pm

I think 20 year old Ody Alfa is showing promise. Although more a RM he can also play striker and is well built. Currently on loan at National League Maidstone United so is obviously still developing.

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Re: Quick question

Post by sparkypark » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:49 pm

Stans left foot wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:30 pm
well, I was putting another spin on it. Just how sustainable is FFP?

we're stuck, as are several other Championship clubs, in a false scenario where rich, very rich, ( in our case Very, very, very rich ) wealthy owners are hamstrung to abide by FFP.

this leaves them and their clubs in a trapped position. They can't spend and effectively "go for it" without sanction. I know of now other business ( in the free world ) where such a constraint of trade is allowed by law.
The NFL’s salary cap has the same effect surely - and that’s in “the land of the free”.
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Re: Quick question

Post by QPR-NI » Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:13 pm

sparkypark wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:49 pm
Stans left foot wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:30 pm
well, I was putting another spin on it. Just how sustainable is FFP?

we're stuck, as are several other Championship clubs, in a false scenario where rich, very rich, ( in our case Very, very, very rich ) wealthy owners are hamstrung to abide by FFP.

this leaves them and their clubs in a trapped position. They can't spend and effectively "go for it" without sanction. I know of now other business ( in the free world ) where such a constraint of trade is allowed by law.
The NFL’s salary cap has the same effect surely - and that’s in “the land of the free”.
The NFL is a closed shop. No relegation. Money is guaranteed every year, no matter what.

The salary cap is a stitch up by the owners and league to avoid paying the players anymore than they have to.

A great system if you are part of it.

I’d imagine it’s what the Champions League elite aspire to.

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Re: Quick question

Post by Greyhound » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:08 pm

We have no choice about the strategy we are taking, unless we want to risk further FFP sanction or we manage to move to a stadium which allows us to increase our revenue. I think we need to make about £5-10m net from player transfers over the next few years just to break even. The income situation is dire, because the only way we can grow it is by selling players - so we are going to have to get used to flogging stars like Bright and Eze and hope we keep Ramsey and Warburton to keep the production line going.

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