Prediction of final table

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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by kernowhoop » Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:46 pm

QPR_John wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:52 am
kernowhoop wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:59 am
Ten days ago, I posted this.
viewtopic.php?f=12&t=79799

I still feel the same about the run in to the end of the season. Rather than over-indulging in experiments, it would have been better to have focused on a settled, winning starting line-up (did the games against Birmingham, Wigan and Leeds provide a clue?) that would have been good for the morale of the fans and with next season in mind, good for the team, too. Not only that, but, we would probably have been 'safe' by now and not having to win a game as the fixtures run out.
Nevertheless, I am still happy with Ollie as the manager and, it seems, so is Sir Les. He commented recently on the opportunity that the end-of-season run-in provides for Ollie to try things out. But, I would have liked to have seen us go into next season with good, winning habits established. There is still time for that, but, only just.
If you believe, as I do, that it was not the time for experimenting then how can you be happy with Holloway. Lies, damn lies and statistics I know but they are all we have so here goes.

In the last 14 seasons a team on 50 or more points has been relegated 4 times that is 28% of the time not a figure to disregard albeit the trend was 50 points is safe simply on that basis. However looking a little closer In all other seasons the team finishing third from bottom averaged 43 points, 47(1), 46(2),44(1),42(3),41(1), and 40(2). we had 50 points and Blackburn had 40 points 4 games ago when our run of defeats ("experiment") began. It was not unreasonable at that point that this season might buck the trend, hence best for at least one more win. The point is that looking at previous seasons it was not obvious 4 games ago at 50 points we were safe enough to experiment.
I get the point, but, I am allowing him some leeway because of his total commitment and that still quite recent run of form.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by ZENITH R » Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:35 pm

222gers wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:58 pm
beaglebum wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:47 pm
Doesn't look good unless we pick up at least 1 win.

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calc ... mpionship/

Next 4 games as follows

QPR - SWEDs H, BRENT A, NFOR H NOR A. I predict 1pt = 51pts
IPS -BUR H, NEW H, ROTH A, SWEDS H, NFOR A I predict 5pts = 54pts
BRIS - BLK A, BARNS H, BRIGH A, BIR H, 4 pts = 51pts
BIR - BUR H, AVILLA A, HUDDS H, BRIS A 4pts =51pts
NFOR CAR A, READ H, QPR A, IPS H I predict 7pts =52pts
BUR - IPS A, BIR A, LEEDS H, BARNS A, READ H. I predict 6 pts = 51pts
BLK = BRIS H, WOLVS A, AVILL H, BRENT A I prediict 8 pts = 51pts

Ok it's unlikely that 5 teams would finish on 51pts but I think it shows that we still need 1 win to be safe. None of our remaining games are easy and I fear that all those teams will be more up for it than us, especially Weds, Brent and Forest :(
Even Wigan can catch us if they win their last four games - highly unlikely of course. If we don't get any more points we need Bristol to beat Blackburn and Ipswich and Brum winning their games against the lower teams.
Wigan catch us if they win all their games (including Brighton away) and we lose all of ours.

Not going to happen. They (Wigan) may have beaten Barnsley (nothing to play for) and Rotherham (already relegated) but Brighton (going for the title) will be a different kettle of fish. For good measure ... Wigan also have Reading away and Leeds and Cardiff at home. Win them all? Flying pigs!

Which brings us to Blackburn - 4 to play a maximum of 55 points available. A fired up Bristol City at home, Wolves away, Villa at home and Brentford away. 4 wins there? I really can't see it. A win in any of our last 4 (or even three draws) and Blackburn will need those 4 wins to get above us.

Burton and Forest don't have an easy run in (still 5 points behind us) and then there's Birmingham who can't buy a win - Burton home, Villa away, Huddersfield home Bristol City away. I think they have far more to worry about than we do.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by Satch » Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:46 pm

kernowhoop wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:46 pm
QPR_John wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:52 am
kernowhoop wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:59 am
Ten days ago, I posted this.
viewtopic.php?f=12&t=79799

I still feel the same about the run in to the end of the season. Rather than over-indulging in experiments, it would have been better to have focused on a settled, winning starting line-up (did the games against Birmingham, Wigan and Leeds provide a clue?) that would have been good for the morale of the fans and with next season in mind, good for the team, too. Not only that, but, we would probably have been 'safe' by now and not having to win a game as the fixtures run out.
Nevertheless, I am still happy with Ollie as the manager and, it seems, so is Sir Les. He commented recently on the opportunity that the end-of-season run-in provides for Ollie to try things out. But, I would have liked to have seen us go into next season with good, winning habits established. There is still time for that, but, only just.
If you believe, as I do, that it was not the time for experimenting then how can you be happy with Holloway. Lies, damn lies and statistics I know but they are all we have so here goes.

In the last 14 seasons a team on 50 or more points has been relegated 4 times that is 28% of the time not a figure to disregard albeit the trend was 50 points is safe simply on that basis. However looking a little closer In all other seasons the team finishing third from bottom averaged 43 points, 47(1), 46(2),44(1),42(3),41(1), and 40(2). we had 50 points and Blackburn had 40 points 4 games ago when our run of defeats ("experiment") began. It was not unreasonable at that point that this season might buck the trend, hence best for at least one more win. The point is that looking at previous seasons it was not obvious 4 games ago at 50 points we were safe enough to experiment.
I get the point, but, I am allowing him some leeway because of his total commitment and that still quite recent run of form.
What evidence is there of this?

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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by QPR_John » Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:22 pm

kernowhoop p@/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=79799 wrote: I get the point, but, I am allowing him some leeway because of his total commitment and that still quite recent run of form.
Every manager should have total commitment to the club that employs him. I do not think it is a reason to give credit.
Last edited by QPR_John on Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by kernowhoop » Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:55 pm

Satch wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:46 pm
kernowhoop wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:46 pm
QPR_John wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:52 am


If you believe, as I do, that it was not the time for experimenting then how can you be happy with Holloway. Lies, damn lies and statistics I know but they are all we have so here goes.

In the last 14 seasons a team on 50 or more points has been relegated 4 times that is 28% of the time not a figure to disregard albeit the trend was 50 points is safe simply on that basis. However looking a little closer In all other seasons the team finishing third from bottom averaged 43 points, 47(1), 46(2),44(1),42(3),41(1), and 40(2). we had 50 points and Blackburn had 40 points 4 games ago when our run of defeats ("experiment") began. It was not unreasonable at that point that this season might buck the trend, hence best for at least one more win. The point is that looking at previous seasons it was not obvious 4 games ago at 50 points we were safe enough to experiment.
I get the point, but, I am allowing him some leeway because of his total commitment and that still quite recent run of form.
What evidence is there of this?
His interviews since he joined us and the passion that he has shown. That does not guarantee anything, but, it adds up to more than you get with most managers - and we have seen a few.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by old pauline » Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:35 pm

Personally I'm not sure why Ollie has elected to go narrow when 4-4-2 was yielding results, or at least, 4-1-3-2 was if Hall was dropping deep. Personally, I think it might be the influence of Curtis Fleming.

Nevertheless I am fairly convinced that Ollie is the best man for the job. We were sinking like a stone under JFH. No doubt about it. I know stats might not back up the facts but JFH's methods, as well meaning as they might have been, were a recipe for disaster for us.

I'm wondering how many of Ollie's defeats have been cataclysmic. From memory pretty much all of the six to start with could have gone either way and one or two of the recent ones could have gone the other way too.

Definitely the right man for the job but needs to stop pissing around with soaking up pressure and building attacks from deep and needs to keep us playing high and organising a three/four man defence with one holding midfielder.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by 222gers » Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:11 pm

I was fairly pleased when Ollie signed if only because of the passion and commitment thing. Sure enough, right from the get-go against Norwich, the atmosphere and the players' attitude had changed. However, to tinker with things when a fairly settled team had delivered a very encouraging run of results is beyond me. OK, we may well be worrying for nothing but we've gone from plain sailing to choppy waters alarmingly quickly.

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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by old pauline » Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:17 pm

I agree. But to give him his due, Wszolek did go off the boil after a good start for him so I can see why he was 'rested'. I agree that he has made one or two strange decisions though. Leaving Freeman out against Brighton. Bizarre.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by Satch » Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:51 am

i think Ian Holloway is aware that a bit of chest thumping and a few platitudes earn you a lot of grace as this thread demonstrates. I personally think he is no more committed than either Ramsey or Hasselbaink, just rather louder about it. As above, it isn't something you should get credit for. Only criticism if you don't.

We were not sinking like a stone under Hasselbaink, we were playing like a mid-table team. The sinking happened after he went. Of our recent defeats, i wouldn't say any of them were likely to go the other way, we've been seriously poor and it's not like we've been trying anything revolutionary or giving youth a chance. Hopefully, we can get a win or two and finish the season as we hope to start the next.

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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by White Duck » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:18 am

Satch wrote:
Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:51 am
i think Ian Holloway is aware that a bit of chest thumping and a few platitudes earn you a lot of grace as this thread demonstrates. I personally think he is no more committed than either Ramsey or Hasselbaink, just rather louder about it. As above, it isn't something you should get credit for. Only criticism if you don't.

We were not sinking like a stone under Hasselbaink, we were playing like a mid-table team. The sinking happened after he went. Of our recent defeats, i wouldn't say any of them were likely to go the other way, we've been seriously poor and it's not like we've been trying anything revolutionary or giving youth a chance. Hopefully, we can get a win or two and finish the season as we hope to start the next.
Disagree with all of this apart from the last sentence.

Holloway's best playing years were with us during one of our most successful periods and he also had a long stint as manager here. Laughable that you think JFH or Ramsey was just us committed to QPR.

And there is a tiresome vocal minority on here who keep banging on about JFH's time at the club as somehow perfectly acceptable: apart from some terrible and embarrassing thrashings the football was as dull as I could remember. Even the occasional good win (Fulham away) was as lucky as could be. The guy has not managed to get himself a manager's job since we got rid.

And most of our recent losses have been by a single goal so it's a joke to say none of the results could've gone the other way. And 'not giving youth a chance'? Where were Manning and Furlong until Holloway came along?

Looking forward to going to the game tomorrow and hope QPR can get the win so the moaning can stop for a little bit from the very small minority.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by Esox Lucius » Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:10 am

old pauline wrote:
Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:35 pm
Definitely the right man for the job but needs to stop pissing around with soaking up pressure and building attacks from deep and needs to keep us playing high and organising a three/four man defence with one holding midfielder.
So, not the right man for the job then as his tactics are completely wrong?
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by UxbridgeR » Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:46 am

White Duck wrote:
Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:18 am
Satch wrote:
Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:51 am
i think Ian Holloway is aware that a bit of chest thumping and a few platitudes earn you a lot of grace as this thread demonstrates. I personally think he is no more committed than either Ramsey or Hasselbaink, just rather louder about it. As above, it isn't something you should get credit for. Only criticism if you don't.

We were not sinking like a stone under Hasselbaink, we were playing like a mid-table team. The sinking happened after he went. Of our recent defeats, i wouldn't say any of them were likely to go the other way, we've been seriously poor and it's not like we've been trying anything revolutionary or giving youth a chance. Hopefully, we can get a win or two and finish the season as we hope to start the next.
Disagree with all of this apart from the last sentence.

Holloway's best playing years were with us during one of our most successful periods and he also had a long stint as manager here. Laughable that you think JFH or Ramsey was just us committed to QPR.

And there is a tiresome vocal minority on here who keep banging on about JFH's time at the club as somehow perfectly acceptable: apart from some terrible and embarrassing thrashings the football was as dull as I could remember. Even the occasional good win (Fulham away) was as lucky as could be. The guy has not managed to get himself a manager's job since we got rid.
Proving what exactly ? That he's a shit manager ?

Managers who get the sack quite often like to take time out of the game for all sorts of reasons. JFH has been unemployed for 5 and a half months now. Holloway was out for 20 months before we pulled him back in.

As for commitment, that's down to the individual. Gareth Ainsworth had no previous ties to QPR before he joined, but clearly put his heart and soul into every performance. Nor was that confined to QPR. He was like that whoever he played for, as the reception he got from fans at his previous clubs demonstrated. That's who he was, and how he was.

I don't doubt Holloway's commitment for a moment, but then as Satch points out, he does tend to bang on about these things at every opportunity. JFH and Ramsey were much less demonstrative, but I saw no reason to doubt their commitment to the job in hand either.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by Esox Lucius » Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:26 am

I wholeheartedly agree with that. I think that is the reason that Onuoha gets so much grief from people because they can't see him screaming and shouting at his team mates, ergo he is a shit captain. Mike Keen who won the League Cup as a captain was very much in the same mould as Onuoha, quietly went about his business and did his job to the best of his (fairly limited) ability. Move forward 50 years (ish) and you have Adel Taarabt as Captain and we managed to win the Championship in style. In between those two victories you had Terry Fenwick, under the stewardship of Terry Venables, who was more vocal but rarely resorted to screaming at the players and got on with his own job. Those are the only things we have WON in my lifetime of following QPR and Fenwick was the "nastiest" of the captains involved in those and whose commitment appeared to be the most obvious, yet all three were fully committed on the pitch to winning. In summary, ones opinion of a players commitment is just that, ones opinion. I never thought of Ian Gillard as a player showing overwhelming commitment and passion in a match, he always seemed to just flourish with his skills etc. yet, since speaking to him at a few games this season I have come to realise he is a die hard QPR fan to match any of the supporters. Perception is not reality.
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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by niknak74 » Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:08 pm

We won the playoff final too, but I suppose you ignore that as it was under the management of Harry Redknapp and we all still remember the hatred you had for him.

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Re: Prediction of final table

Post by ZENITH R » Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:31 pm

Esox Lucius wrote:
Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:26 am
I wholeheartedly agree with that. I think that is the reason that Onuoha gets so much grief from people because they can't see him screaming and shouting at his team mates, ergo he is a shit captain. Mike Keen who won the League Cup as a captain was very much in the same mould as Onuoha, quietly went about his business and did his job to the best of his (fairly limited) ability. Move forward 50 years (ish) and you have Adel Taarabt as Captain and we managed to win the Championship in style. In between those two victories you had Terry Fenwick, under the stewardship of Terry Venables, who was more vocal but rarely resorted to screaming at the players and got on with his own job. Those are the only things we have WON in my lifetime of following QPR and Fenwick was the "nastiest" of the captains involved in those and whose commitment appeared to be the most obvious, yet all three were fully committed on the pitch to winning. In summary, ones opinion of a players commitment is just that, ones opinion. I never thought of Ian Gillard as a player showing overwhelming commitment and passion in a match, he always seemed to just flourish with his skills etc. yet, since speaking to him at a few games this season I have come to realise he is a die hard QPR fan to match any of the supporters. Perception is not reality.
Nedum Onouha took over as captain when Joey Barton left in May 2015. Since then we have seen mostly underwhelming performances on the pitch. Under Mike Keen's captaincy we achieved two promotions and a league cup win. Under Onouha we have ....

Onouha's lack of leadership was encapsulated for me at Hillsborough in October. Nicholas Hamalainen was making only his third appearance in the back four alongside Onouha that day. I watched closely - no encouragement, no coaching, little support and Hamalainen's QPR career stalled - he hasn't made another first team appearance since. With over 250 first team appearances to his name at that point I think it is reasonable to expect the captain to offer some assistance, support and encouragement to a young man at the start of his career.

Of course where your argument falls flat on it's backside is the number of poor lack luster performances we have witnessed in the two years since Onouha became captain. If there were a few 'fire in their bellies' performances to add some balance it would help, but there haven't been. Defeats at Rotherham and home to Burton being two particularly low points.

i think there are a number of candidates for the job in our current squad who would do a far better job.
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