How close is this league?

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beaglebum
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How close is this league?

Post by beaglebum » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:10 am

I know there's a lot of "what if's" here but this league is so close.

Had we lost against Birham, Cardiff, Rotherham and Leeds (which many before kick off thought we could), then we would be on the same points as Blackburn and in the relegation zone. Yet, had we beaten Blackburn, Huddersfield, Leeds and Derby (which our performances deserved) we'd be just 2 points off the playoffs and likely to grab 6th spot as the in-form team.

I think this season the relegated team will go down on about 53 pts, so we are by no means safe yet, Saying that, when you are in the bottom 3, 10 points is a huge gap to make up.

The future under the current regime looks good and I can't remember the last time I thought that :)

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by SheepRanger » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:48 am

I think one more transfer window will give us a stable imbedded squad and 3-6th is very achievable. What will count is whether the teams coming down keep their squads or start slashing their cost base. We really need to go up next season due to the financial situation to secure our future. No so bothered about the top flight football rhough as I love the championship.

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by dm » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:10 pm

That's a pretty fair summation Sheepy, but I would add that keeping some of our better players such as Smithies, Hall and Wszolek, will also be key. Though saying that I am not all that confident we will be able to keep them all.

With Penrice and Reeves however we have increased our ability to scout players. This is essential as whatever little money we have for summer transfers needs to be spent a wisely as possible.

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by ZENITH R » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:14 pm

More realistically ...

Had we beaten Rotherham away and Burton at home - poor team selection and tactics cost us on both occasions, they were both very winnable games, we would be six points off the play offs, in form with eight to play, whereas both Sheffield Wednesday and Fulham are wobbling.

Ho hum!

Huddersfield must be kicking themselves. A win on Friday at Bristol City would have seen them 3 points behind 2nd place with a game in hand.
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Re: How close is this league?

Post by beaglebum » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:48 pm

it could be quite an exciting end to the season at both ends

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by BiscuitRanger » Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:01 pm

beaglebum wrote:
Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:48 pm
it could be quite an exciting end to the season at both ends
If it doesn't pass in a couple of days go see the doctor.
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Re: How close is this league?

Post by Giorgio » Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:08 pm

..very unpredictable league...Fulham winning 3-1 at top of the league, N'castle, then conceding the same result at home vs Wolves.... :shock:

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by deadendjob » Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:29 pm

beaglebum wrote:
Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:48 pm
it could be quite an exciting end to the season at both ends
If we keep our form up it's highly likely we'd end up in the playoffs :shock:
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Re: How close is this league?

Post by Don » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:40 am

BiscuitRanger wrote:
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:01 pm
beaglebum wrote:
Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:48 pm
it could be quite an exciting end to the season at both ends
If it doesn't pass in a couple of days go see the doctor.
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Re: How close is this league?

Post by consigliarikb0 » Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:31 am

beaglebum wrote:
Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:10 am

I think this season the relegated team will go down on about 53 pts, so we are by no means safe yet, Saying that, when you are in the bottom 3, 10 points is a huge gap to make up.
No way will it be as high as 54 points to stay up:


Blackburn - 40 points, 2 wins in 6 and 0 in 4. To imagine they are going to somehow win 4/8 (and pick up another point) when they have won 9 of the previous 38 is unlikely

Burton - 41 points, 1 win in 6.

Forest - 41 points, 1 win in 6

Bristol - 41 points, 2 wins in 6

BirmIngham - 45 points, 1 win in 6

Ipswich- 45 points, 0 wins in 6

Wolves - 45 points, 3 wins in 6

Except for Wolves and Bristol city they are all out of form. Even if one of them did manage to turn it around the likelihood that they all could is slim (even those on 45 would need to win 3/8 to mean 53 points would go down). Having glanced at the remaining fixtures it looks like each of the teams below us have at least 2 remaining fixtures against one of the teams around them. Based on that I reckon 48/49 points will be safe.

If I was an ipswich fan I'd be very concerned no wins in 6 and only 2 in 13. The have the run in you don't want playing either the top 7 or the teams below them. Ipswich vs forest last game of the season looks huge.

We are not going down we are not going up, let's have a good end to the season to build some momentum for next year.

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by beaglebum » Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:02 am

consigliarikb0 wrote:
Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:31 am
beaglebum wrote:
Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:10 am

I think this season the relegated team will go down on about 53 pts, so we are by no means safe yet, Saying that, when you are in the bottom 3, 10 points is a huge gap to make up.
No way will it be as high as 54 points to stay up:


Blackburn - 40 points, 2 wins in 6 and 0 in 4. To imagine they are going to somehow win 4/8 (and pick up another point) when they have won 9 of the previous 38 is unlikely

Burton - 41 points, 1 win in 6.

Forest - 41 points, 1 win in 6

Bristol - 41 points, 2 wins in 6

BirmIngham - 45 points, 1 win in 6

Ipswich- 45 points, 0 wins in 6

Wolves - 45 points, 3 wins in 6

Except for Wolves and Bristol city they are all out of form. Even if one of them did manage to turn it around the likelihood that they all could is slim (even those on 45 would need to win 3/8 to mean 53 points would go down). Having glanced at the remaining fixtures it looks like each of the teams below us have at least 2 remaining fixtures against one of the teams around them. Based on that I reckon 48/49 points will be safe.

If I was an ipswich fan I'd be very concerned no wins in 6 and only 2 in 13. The have the run in you don't want playing either the top 7 or the teams below them. Ipswich vs forest last game of the season looks huge.

We are not going down we are not going up, let's have a good end to the season to build some momentum for next year.
I think this league is so close, so who knows. In 2012/13 P'boro and Wolves went down on 54 & 51 pts (that said, Leicester made the playoffs on 68pts). https://genius.com/Football-league-cham ... -annotated At this stage of the year, they were in the bottom 3 on 42pts. http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... 2013-03-17 So maybe 54 is a bit high, but any team can beat another in this league, so maybe not done and dusted just yet.

/

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by SheepRanger » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:23 am

We have eight games left and if we win them all statistically we should make the play offs.

Six of these games are against teams above us and includes a six pointer vs Wednesday who are in 6th place.

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Re: How close is this league?

Post by UxbridgeR » Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:08 pm

Good to see no one's getting carried away :lol:
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Re: How close is this league?

Post by Bear-Grills » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:10 pm

UxbridgeR wrote:
Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:08 pm
Good to see no one's getting carried away :lol:
You'll be as happy as the rest of us when Sylla scrambles home a 93rd minute winner at Wembley in May :wink:
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Re: How close is this league?

Post by 222gers » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:28 pm

Bear-Grills wrote:
Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:10 pm
UxbridgeR wrote:
Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:08 pm
Good to see no one's getting carried away :lol:
You'll be as happy as the rest of us when Sylla scrambles home a 93rd minute winner at Wembley in May :wink:
Sweeping in a pinpoint cross from recalled midfielder Karl Henry........

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