Do we have enough to survive?

[karateelvis]

So after the Jan transfer window are there still 3 clubs in the division with worse squads than us?

[UxbridgeR]

Burton, Bolton, Barnsley.

I think we'll be OK, but it could be a close-run thing.

[222gers]

Burton, Bolton, Barnsley.

I think we'll be OK, but it could be a close-run thing.

The three Bs. Hope it's them and not us for the drop. Anyone know if they've strengthened their squads ? I believe Burton brought in a few.

[DBHoops]

I think it will depends on a quite a few variables

a) Performance against the teams around us.

There are quite a few 6-pointers upcoming starting Saturday. Our performance and more importantly results are vital. Defeats are not an option in these games. We will know a lot more about our fate at the end of February. Home games vs Barnsley, Bolton & Forest are all games we NEED to win.

b) Fortress Loftus Road

Last season 52 points were needed to survive, which was high, but looks like we'll need similar to be safe again, as there isn't a couple of teams look like they will be cut adrift and all around us have strengthen their squad.

To get to 52 points from 33. We will need 19 points. We know the vast majority of these will need to be gained at home. Looking at the fixture list, I just can't see where all of those points are coming from. 5 home wins and 4 points away from home should do it.

Fans can play a part here and start creating an atmosphere difficult form away team. Apathy will be a threat here as it can work both ways. We need to treat every six pointer like we are going down if we don't win & raise the roof.

c) A case for the defence

We currently have a goal difference of minus 11. 0 at home minus 11 away. We know that we do not have the firepower to score goals, so it is all on our defense to win points. Away from home if we go one down , we know the best we are getting is a point. We have the 6th worst goal difference in the division. It is going to vital to avoid hammerings against the top teams and if we are not to get results against the teams around us then we have to draw or lose by a single goal. Goal difference looks like it could be important this year. The eight goal swing we currently enjoy over the bottom three can very quickly be eroded, especially if we start losing by two or three & those bad results happen against the bottom three.

d) Injuries

As we saw with our defense earlier this season, we are particularly thin. Injuries in key positions will leave us with a real problem e.g. Smithies, Scowen, Freeman

e) Reliance on youth

If we get into a scrap, the kids are going to have to step up and the old heads will need to guide them through it. The kids haven't exactly been prolific so again we have to rely on the experienced players to step up with goals and to keep clam heads if it all gets tense and help the kids through it

f) The manager

As much as I hate to say it, but the adage, never go back is playing out to be true. Holloway's slavishly sticking to his formation may be costing us here. We are going to need Holloway to manage the situation as well as the team. We feel a long way away from the "This is our cave" mentality. It feels more us and them. He needs to unify us all - fans and teams. This currently isn't happening.

The maths

Do I think we'll survive? Our current run rate is 1.137 points this season. (Let's remember this includes 2 away wins)

We have 17 games left. If this continues by the end of the season we will have accrued 19.329 points. Reaching our target by 0.329 points.

We need to reach 52 points, we end the season on 52 points...

Will we survive? Ask me on March 1st after the next three home games

[n22hoop]

Bolton were busy bringing in 4 players.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42896282

I think QPR have taken a big gamble in letting a few kids go and not bring anyone in. The board obviously think there's enough daylight between ourselves and the bottom three. Don't they realise Ollie manages the club? We could easily lose 4-6 games in a row.....again.

[UxbridgeR]

Bolton were busy bringing in 4 players.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42896282

I think QPR have taken a big gamble in letting a few kids go and not bring anyone in. The board obviously think there's enough daylight between ourselves and the bottom three. Don't they realise Ollie manages the club? We could easily lose 4-6 games in a row.....again.

Bolton also sold their top scorer, so the extent to which they've strengthened is debatable. But I agree we've taken a gamble not bringing anyone in.

[Mr Beef]

Bolton were busy bringing in 4 players.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42896282

I think QPR have taken a big gamble in letting a few kids go and not bring anyone in. The board obviously think there's enough daylight between ourselves and the bottom three. Don't they realise Ollie manages the club? We could easily lose 4-6 games in a row.....again.

Bolton also sold their top scorer, so the extent to which they've strengthened is debatable. But I agree we've taken a gamble not bringing anyone in.

I guess the question is that, with our limited budget, whether anybody that would realistically be able to bring in would make much difference to the starting eleven.

[White Duck]

Subject to avoiding a bad run of injuries we should have a good enough (and big enough) squad to survive, especially as we have kept our best players.

[dm]

I think we have enough to survive and can see us finishing in the same 18th position as last season to the harrumphing displeasure of many.

[westlondonlalala]

Apparently Bolton just sold there main man to Cardiff for 6m.

That’ll do nicely thanks Neil

[the big IP]

i think we are going down if we do it serves the owners and the board right

[IJM]

Don't panic folks, just keep an eye on my regular post concerning this season's prediction !

All is in order so far - I'm still predicting/forecasting a 16th place finish.

Keep the faith.

[Stans left foot]

harrumphing displeasure

How dare you Sir!!

[dm]

harrumphing displeasure

How dare you Sir!!

[Spanish Ranger]

Burton, Bolton, Barnsley.

I think we'll be OK, but it could be a close-run thing.

I also think we'll scrape through. Let's not forget Hull and Sheffield Wednesday who are both in dire form and can't buy a win at the moment - SW only have a single win in a league game for all of Dec/Jan. Interestingly both these remain in the FA Cup which means they could also face a fixture backlog later on in the season - let's hope for a few replays!

Relegation is far from a 4 horse race!